Rex’s Oscar Predictions 2008

So here they are, world! LemonWade’s Academy Award predictions for 2008, courtesy of this site’s official prognosticator, Rex Okpodu. To keep things interesting, Rex has decided not to guess the big prize, Best Picture. That selection is mine. The Oscars will be broadcast this Sunday on ABC, at 8 p.m. EST.

Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: “No Country for Old Men” – This isn’t a year when an underdog is going to “Crash” the party.

Alternate Winner: “Juno” – If any underdog can accomplish a miracle, this box-office-approved comedy will do it.

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: “No Country for Old Men”, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – A lock for the win even if there is an upset in the best picture category.

Alternate Winner: “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, Julian Schnabel – An upset is highly unlikely but if there is one, it would come from Julian and the critically acclaimed Butterfly.

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Predicted Winner: Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” – A very small role in a film largely overlooked by Oscar. This could be an oscar for a long and illustrious career plus she and her late husband, Ossie Davis, are well liked in Hollywood.

Alternate Winner: Amy Ryan – Her buzz seems to have died down but since Blanchett just won in 2004 for “The Aviator,” it is likely that this stage and television actress could take the Oscar if Ruby does not get in by sentiment.

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Predicted Winner: Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” – Another lock since he has won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA.

Alternate Winner: Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” – This has lately been the career-award category.

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Predicted Winner: Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” – I am taking a gamble here and predicting Cotillard has dislodged Christie from the frontrunner status she had held all season. Cotillard, like Christie, also got the Golden Globe albeit for Musical comedy even though “Rose” is actually a biopic drama with music.

Alternate Winner: Julie Christie in “Away from Her” – She has been the frontrunner but the fact that this British 60s icon lost the BAFTA during the Oscar voting suggests that she is not as strong as imagined.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Predicted Winner: Daniel Day Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” – A lock for the win since he has won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA.

Alternate Winner: George Clooney, “Michael Clayton” – Hollywood’s favorite liberal poster boy has recently been talked up for an upset but the chances of that happening are very doubtful especially as he just won recently in the supporting category.

Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Predicted Winner: “Juno” – This is the annual locked category for the little movie that could (“Little Miss Sunshine,” 2007, “Sideways,” 2006, etc.).

Alternate: ” Michael Clayton – Strongest here since it is also a best picture nominee.

Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: ” No Country for Old Men” – Most likely since they won the Scripter and WGA awards.

Alternate Winner: “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” – This is the only category where the critically acclaimed “Butterfly” could likely be rewarded.

Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
12 (Russia)

Predicted Winner: “The Counterfeiters” – Never bet against a film about the Holocaust.

Alternate Winner: “Beaufort” – Israel

Surf’s Up

Predicted Winner: “Ratatouille”

Alternate Winner: “Persepolis” – If there is going to be an upset here, it will be from this groundbreaking work from Iran. But I think the rat gets the cheese.

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