What Will Win the Top Tonys?
I think it’s pretty safe to say that the nominees for this year’s Best Musical Tony award will be: “In the Heights” and “Passing Strange,” which have recently opened on Broadway, and “A Catered Affair” and “Cry-Baby,” which are about to begin previews. “Passing Strange” will probably end up with the best reviews across the board, and it’s doing some box office, but it doesn’t seem to have the confluence of “it” factors to go all the way. The show, of which I’m a fan, is a little too downtown-vibed to grab the brass ring. “A Catered Affair,” which played last year at the Old Globe in San Diego, has almost the opposite problem: adapted from a 1950s Bette Davis movie chestnut, it seems slightly too old-school, even for the typical “who’s Flo Rida?” Tony voter. If it’s a “Hairspray”-level smash, “Cry-Baby” could go all the way: it’s broadly crowd-pleasing, and has some appeal to an under-40 demographic. But the odds against lightning striking twice for a John Waters adaptation are considerable. That leaves “In the Heights.” Except for its somewhat sugarcoated book, it’s gotten very good reviews, and actor/songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda (pictured) wouldn’t be amiss to start dreaming in the shower about his acceptance speech(es). All “In the Heights” needs is to catch a flame or two more fire at the box office — and I suspect that it will. Bottom line at this point: “In the Heights.”
As for Best Play, if “August: Osage County” doesn’t win the Tony (and the Pulitzer, and everything else) then I’m going to retire and move back to my home town in South Dakota. Best Revival of Play can’t be predicted yet, because too many possible contenders haven’t opened. As for Best Revival of a Musical, that’s going to be the toughest Tony category of all: “Sunday in the Park with George,” “Gypsy,” and “South Pacific” illustrate Mae West’s remark that too much of a good thing can be…wonderful.
