Rex’s Oscar Predictions 2009

220px-academy_award_oscar1So here they are: the Oscar predictions of LemonWade’s awards specialist, Rex Okpodu. I have to say that they are pretty much by-the-numbers, which isn’t a bad thing, since being by-the-numbers will probably help you win your Oscar pool. I think Rex goes out on a limb by naming Viola Davis for Best Supporting Actress (that’s the only major award on which Rex and I disagree: I’ll go with T. P. Henson — “Button” has to win something besides the makeup category.) Rex’s predictions after the jump.

Best Picture:
>> Slumdog Millionaire – The prohibitive front runner, having
>> swept the guilds. It will be a big shock if the dog does
>> make a dog’s evening of them all.
>> Best Director:
>> Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire )- Boyle should make a
>> dog’s dinner of this category.
>> Best Actor:
>> Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler -Rourke and Penn are joint
>> front runners with the latter having the edge due to the SAG (a prime Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences constituency) win. I have decided to predict Rourke because he has a more compelling back story and could be said to have run a more interesting campaign – The dogs! The speeches! Plus: Penn has already won an Oscar, which tends to depress a nominee’s odds of winning.
>> Best Actress:
>> Kate Winslet (The Reader) – Kate is overdue (5 noms, no
>> win), Meryl (Doubt) is also overdue for a 3rd Oscar ( 14 noms, 12
>> losses, the last win was 26 years ago). I am going with Kate
>> because I do not think the backlash against The Reader
>> occurred soon enough to prevent this being her year.
>> Best Supporting Actor:
>> Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) – The shoo-in to win for all the
>> right and wrong reasons. The performance was iconic, it is payback for the Brokeback loss in 2005, and then there’s the collective guilt factor that one of Hollywood’s brightest stars slipped away so tragically.
>> Best Supporting Actress:
>> Viola Davis (Doubt) – I am taking the plunge and going with
>> Davis even though Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) is the frontrunner. This could go three ways:
>> Cruz (she won the Bafta but lost the Globe and SAG to
>> Winslet who is not competing in this category)
>> Davis – she plays the small but pivotal role in Doubt
>> or T. P. Henson — the votes for Doubt could be split and she
>> ends up the winner (her film has 13 Oscar nominations for a
>> reason)
>> Best Original Screenplay:
>> Dustin Lance Black (Milk). Wall-E will make history if it
>> wins this as it was easily the best silent-film-type of script since
>> Sunrise (1929). Milk is a best picture nominee and a win here
>> will show support for the film especially if Penn does not win
>> the actor category.
>> Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
>> – Like the best director category, Slumdog is definitely going home with this one.
>> Best Animated Film: Wall-E – Should also have been
>> nominated in the best picture category. A definite shoo-in
>> for for the win here, with or without also winning in the
>> screenplay category.
>> Best Foreign-Language Film: Waltz With Bashir – The
>> presumptive winner but one has to be careful with this
>> category as the criteria for a win could be down to if
>> enough of its supporters saw it since nomination day.

And the rest…..
>> Documentary: Man On Wire
>> Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
>> Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
>> Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
>> Costume Design: The Duchess
>> Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
>> Score: Slumdog Millionaire
>> Song: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
>> Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
>> Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
>> Sound Mixing: Wall-E
>> Short: Spielzugland (Toyland)
>> Animated Short: Presto!
>> Documentary Short: Smile Pinki

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