Why “Precious” Won’t Win

preciousSome Oscar experts are now saying flat-out that “Precious” is the front-runner for Best Picture. There’s no question that it will get a nomination, but the big award itself? I doubt it. America may have elected an African-American president, but it’s never given the big movie award to an all-black cast film, and I don’t see it happening now. America likes pretty people, and while Oprah and Tyler Perry may get some white folks off their butts and in to cinemas to see “Precious,” it still has to convince the old white folks who vote the Oscars to do the same. (Or at least pop a screener into the home entertainment system.) If those old white folks are going to vote their liberal consciences this year, they are just as likely to pull the lever for “Invictus,” the Clint Eastwood movie about Nelson Mandela, as for “Precious.” Which will clear the field for another movie — “Up in the Air,” perhaps — to win the big one.

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