Rex On The State Of The Race

LW’s Oscar specialist Rex Okpodu has surveyed the results from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. After the jump, he offers his thoughts on how these fests impacted the upcoming Academy Awards race.

Best Picture:

Little came out of the Toronto Film Festival aside from the fact that although The Social Network did not show there, it was previewed for online critics hence the current buzz. The Social Network is slated to open the upcoming New York Film Festival this Friday.

Ben Affleck’s The Town opened to strong reviews this weekend and its box office is expected to be very good. Whether this goes beyond a strong opening weekend, propelling it to being a likely contender for a best picture nomination will be interesting since this was exactly what increasing the list to 10 was meant to do. For now, I have included it as a likely contender.

Going into the fall, we have the top contenders (in no particular order) for best picture as:

The Social Network
The King’s Speech
127 Hours

Black Swan

The Kids Are Alright

The other 4 will come from the following:

Toy Story 3

Another Year
Blue Valentine
Winter’s Bone
Fair Game
True Grit
The Town

Best Director:

5 nominees from this list:

David Fincher,The Social Network

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Doug Liman, Fair Game

Mike Leigh, Another Year

Lisa Cholodenko, The Kid Are All Right

Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone

The Acting Categories:

Sally Hawkins’ and Miranda Richardson’s performances from Made in Dagenham were singled out in Toronto. The former was already on our list and I have included the latter.

There has been some talk about the likelihood of Helena Bonham Carter missing out a nomination because unlike her previous roles, her “King’s Speech” work is very subtle, but I still thinks she might get in as the category is weak this year and “King’s Speech” will definitely be a multiple nomination contender.

“Rabbit Hole” got picked up by Lionsgate and got terrific buzz out of Toronto, bringing Nicole Kidman and possibly, Aaron Eckhart into contention in their respective categories

Best Actor:

5 nominees from this list:

Leonardo Dicaprio – Inception
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Sean Penn – Fair Game or Tree of Life
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Best Actress:

5 nominees will emerge from this list:

Annette Bening – The Kids Are Alright
Noomi Rapace – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Sally Hawkins – Made in Dagenham
Lesley Manville – Another Year
Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman – Blue Swan
Diane Lane – Secretariat

Best Supporting Actor:

5 nominees from:

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Vincent Cassel – Black Swan

Christian Bale – The Fighter

Sam Rockwell – Conviction

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids are Alright

Andrew Garfield – The Social Network

Aaron Eckhart – Rabbit Hole

Best Supporting Actress:

5 nominees from:

Mila Kunis – Black Swan

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Julianne Moore – The Kids Are Alright

Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham

Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Barbara Hershey – Black Swan

The Screenplays:

Original Screenplay:

5 nominees will come from:

The Kids Are All Right
Another Year
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Conspirator

Everything You’ve Got

Next Three Days


Adapted Screenplay:

The 5 nominees will come from:

127 Hours
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Winter’s Bone
Never Let Me Go
The Town
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
True Grit

For Colored Girls

Love and Other Drugs

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