Oscar Nominations: Rex’s Predictions

Tomorrow, the Oscar nominations will be announced. LW’s awards aficionado, Rex Okpodu, filed this prediction report:

Best Picture

The race towards Oscar is in full swing and we have heard from most critics and the Hollywood Foreign Press (the Golden Globes). The important Guilds affecting the Oscar race, the SAG and the DGA, have also given their nominations, while PGA has already selected “The Artist” as top film of the year. Due to this year’s best-picture rule change, the tally of best picture nominees could be anywhere between 5 and 10. The recently announced 5 DGA nominees give their films better odds as this whittles down of the field to the center of industry favorites. That said, it is impossible to accurately predict the final number of contenders but the likely list will look a bit like this:
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. Hugo
6. Moneyball
7. War Horse

Threatening to get in: The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo

Best Director

Four of the directors nominated by the DGA look like sure bets at the Oscars since their films make the top tier 5 contenders for best picture. But there is still the slim chance that 1 or 2 on the DGA list might be replaced on the Academy’s list of nominated directors.

1. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
2. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
3. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
4. Martin Scorcese (Hugo)
5. David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo)

Alternate: Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

Best Actor
For the past couple of years, the Academy has duplicated the SAG noms. Will they this year?

1. George Clooney,The Descendant
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
3. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
5. Michael Fassbender, Shame

Alternate: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor, Soldier Spy

Best Actress

As in the lead actor category above, the first 4 nominees look like sure bets but the 5th might be previous Oscar winner Tilda Swinton, who made the SAG list of nominees, or Rooney Mara from the surging The Girl with The Dragon Tatoo

1. Viola Davis,The Help
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
4. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
5. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Alternate: Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
3. Albert Brooks, Drive
4 Jonah Hill, Moneyball
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior

Alternate: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Janet Mcteer, Albert Nobbs
3. Jessica Chastain, The Help
4. Berenice Bejo, The Artist
5. Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”

Alternate: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

The Screenplays

The five possibilities for Original Screenplay might include:

1. The Artist
2. Midnight in Paris
3. Win Win
4. The Young Adult
5. Bridesmaids

Alternate: 50/50

And for Adapted Screenplay, we could have:

1. The Help
2. The Descendants
3. War Horse
4. Moneyball
5. Hugo

Alternate: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Animated Feature Film

“Cars 2”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”

Foreign Language Film

5 predicted contenders from a list of 9 semi-finalists published from the Academy

Belgium, “Bullhead,” Michael R. Roskam, director
Germany, “Pina,” Wim Wenders, director
Iran, “A Separation,” Asghar Farhadi, director
Israel, “Footnote,” Joseph Cedar, director
Poland, “In Darkness,” Agnieszka Holland, director

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