Oscars: Who Will Be Nominated

Earlier in the week, LW’s Oscarologist, Rex Okpodu, gave us the list of Best Picture possibilities — what he thinks will be announced tomorrow by the Academy. Today he covers the other major categories.

Best Director Possibilities
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)

Alternate: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

At the moment, it is difficult to predict the definitive five for best director. From the Globe nominations, Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck will probably make the Oscar cut. Lee and Tarantino who despite getting Globes nominations, are weaker for their films’ absence as ensemble contenders at SAG, might fill the remaining slots. On the other hand, Hooper’s Les Misérables and Russell’s Silver Linings made the SAG ensemble list but were omitted from the directing category at the Globes. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) went for Hooper over Tarantino and Russell but this group rarely matches the directing category 5/5 (twice in the last decade, 2005 and 2009). It is therefore possible for Hooper (BAFTA snubbed him) to be replaced by Tarantino or Russell or a veteran auteur like Michael Haneke (Amour)

Best Actor Possibilities
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Alt: Joaquin Phoenix in (The Master)
The lead actor category is almost complete with Day Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman and Washington almost certain of nominations. For the fifth slot, there is on one hand, Cooper, who should be a strong contender on the strength of Silver Linings Playbook but might struggle. The odd reasons are not because he did not make the Globes or SAG (he did) but he got a Globe nomination for a Musical Comedy and Oscar is not very kind to newbie pretty boy contenders especially for none dramatic roles. Conversely, there is Phoenix, whose film is struggling. He managed a Globe nod but missed out on the important SAG mention

Best Actress Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

Alt: Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Chastain, Lawrence and Cotillard are certain locks having appeared on the Globes and SAG nominations respectively. Watts and Mirren both appeared on the Globes and SAG nomination lists and cannot be counted out. Wallis’ film did not qualify for SAG nominations but might still make a play having been buzzed since the Sundance Film Festival last spring.

Best Supporting Actor Possibilities
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Alt: Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Based on their showing on the Globes and SAG nominations lists, Lee, Hoffman and Arkin are almost certain to be called on 10 January. De Niro missed out on a Globe nomination but was mentioned at SAG which makes him a strong possibility for one of the two available slots. The fifth nominee could either be DiCaprio or Bardem. If nominated, the latter will make Academy history as the first nominated performance from a Bond film.

Best Supporting Actress Possibilities
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Amy Adams (The Master)

Alt: Nicole Kidman (Paperboy)
The supporting actress category has three certainties in Field, Hathaway and Hunt based on their showing on the Globe and SAG nominations. Adams not getting a SAG mention, makes her weaker despite her Globe nomination. The fifth slot is a scramble between golden oldie: Smith, Adams and a possible upset by Kidman who showed up on the Globes and SAG nominations despite being in a critically panned film. A possible nomination for Academy favorite, Judi Dench for Skyfall (She scored a BAFTA nomination) will not be a shocker on 10 January

Best Adapted Screenplay Possibilities
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life Of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay Possibilities
The Master
Middle of Nowhere
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Foreign Language Possibilities
The Intouchables (France)
Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)

Best Animated Feature Possibilities
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph

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