Rex’s Oscar-Nomination Predictions
LemonWade’s Oscar obsessive Rex Okpodu has read the tea leaves and offers his final predictions for the 87th Academy Awards nominations, to be announced tomorrow at 5.30 am Pacific Time. My only disagreements with Rex: I think Jessica Chastain or Laura Dern could sneak into Best Supporting Actress instead of Naomi Watts, and that Bradley Cooper could grab the Best Actor slot that Rex has for Jake Gyllenhaal. To wit:
Best Picture
Contenders for Oscar’s top award will probably include the 2 Critics winners of best picture from coast to coast, as well as the commercial/critical successes from the recent holiday season. At LW, we have chosen 10 contenders but Oscar’s preferential voting system will probably include anything between 5 and 10. A reminder of how that works: films must earn either 5% of first-place rankings or 5% after an abbreviated variation of the single transferable vote. Our picks are:
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Nightcrawler
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Watch out for American Sniper, which seems to be surging at the moment and Selma, which cannot be counted out for at least a nomination.
Best Director
This is one category in which most pundits are already predicting the winner but we will not go there yet. It is the contenders for a nominated place that matter at this stage. Inarritu and Linklater are as close to locks in this category as they come. Our list of possible contenders for helmer of the year are:
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Morten Tydum, The Imitation Game
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
The director’s branch has done a reasonable job of going their own way recently, by nominating in 2011, Terrence Malick (Tree of Life), 2012, Michael Haneke (Amour) and Ben Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild). Ava DuVernay might still get a nomination for Selma having snagged a nomination from both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. If she does, she will become the 1st woman of color to ever be nominated for a Best Director Oscar and only the 5th woman ever. Other possibilities are Damien Chazelle, Whiplash or David Fincher, Gone Girl.
Best Actor
In terms of precursors so far, this is turning out as a predictable year for the acting Oscar nominations with the Golden Globes dramatic acting list and Screen Actors Guild lists almost matching in all 5 nominations. For a while a quartet had been standing in this category for Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) but the precursors have also added new blood to the race in the shape of David Oyelowo (Selma) and Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler). Any one of them could take the final slot or even knock 1 or 2 of the aforementioned others out. Keaton, Redmayne and Cumberbatch are the only sure things with everyone else vulnerable. Gyllenhaal got nominations from SAG, the Globes and the Critics Choice but that does not automatically secure an Oscar spot (Ask Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson last year). David Oyelowo seems likely as Selma seems stronger as Best Picture unlike Carell who is in a weaker film (Foxcatcher). We have decided to go bold and predict the following for male lead contenders:
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Steve Carell Foxcatcher
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Watch out for David Oyewolo (Selma) who gives a career defining performance as Martin Luther King in Selma. The film has subsided in the precursors but the Academy might still honor it by giving a few nominations here and there.
Best Actress
The only point worth mentioning here is Jennifer Aniston’s contention. Once considered a very dark horse, the Globes, SAG and Critics Choice all went for her performance in Cake despite the film being met with lukewarm reviews. This race seems more likely settled and, like the male lead category, Oscar’s leading ladies will most likely match the SAG nominations with the following likely nominees:
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Watch out for a very long shot from the Amy Adams (Big Eyes). The film had is not one of her best but she just won the Golden Globe for best actress in a musical comedy, making her a contender for the 5th slot if the Academy decides to shake things up.
Best Supporting Actor
The first four contenders have been repeated in all of the pre Oscar nominations lists. Duvall is the weakest link for being in a film with less than stellar reviews despite his standout performance. However, he is a previous winner and cannot be discounted so we are leaving him in.
The complete list will probably read like:
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffolo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Watch out for John Goodman (The Gambler), which made a small splash during the holidays, just as Academy voters were marking their nomination ballots.
Best Supporting Actress
Like the supporting male contenders above, the 5th contender here, Naomi Watts, is the only weak bet. What she has going for her is the fact that she also appears in one of the strong contenders for best picture, Birdman. Academy voters might want to reward her by including her in this probable list:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Naomi Watts, St Vincent
Watch out for Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), who could get lucky if her film makes a big play other than in the lead actor category.
Best Foreign Film
Ida, Poland
Leviathan, Russia
Wild Tales, Argentina
Force Majeure, Sweden
Accused, Netherlands
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Whiplash
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
The Theory of Everything
Wild
Unbroken
Best Animated Feature
The Lego Movie
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Boxtrolls
Big Hero 6
